Milan is not controlled by the military police, nor repressed by some internet censorship or run by an orange bozo. Italians have a working and free health system, opposite USA and most other “superpowers”. The Milanese are obviously worried, but continues to love, eat and watch football. Of course, most major activities are currently cancelled to reduce the risk of virus spread. The authorities are dealing with it, yes in a Italian way.
However the corona-virus is very contagious, so is it smart to lock-down a region, a city or a cruise ship?
To assess the contagion, we speak of the “R Zero” of the virus. This means how many people get the virus if you put a sick person in a room of 100 people. The zero R:
- The flu is 1.3
- Corona-virus is 2.2
- Rubella is 6
The average incubation time for the corona-virus is 6 days, which means that if we place a sick individual in a room of 100 people, we will have:
- Day 6: 2.2 patients + the first patients = 3.2
- On day 12: the 2.2 will each infect 2.2 people => 3.2 + 2.2 + 2.2 = 7.6 patients
- On day 18: 24 patients = 24% of the population
In the example carried out by Dr Phippe Devos on the Belgium territory with existing Belgian hospitals. You would end-up with:
30,000 beds for 117,000 people to be hospitalized.
1,400 beds for 52,000 people to be admitted to intensive care.
The press and the Italian politicians managed to launch a snowball of hysterical deductions and overreactions that plunged the country into a coma. Don't worry, Italy is just taking a beauty-sleep, Italy will rise this spring in the sun with more love, football and fantastic culture.
Piazza del Duomo, Milan